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November 6, 2012

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Final Presidential Election Analysis

The campaigning days of the 2012 Presidential Election are over. A compilation of national polls by New York Times analyst Nate Silver indicates that President Barack Obama is slightly ahead of Governor Mitt Romney. DePauw history professor David Gellman believes that Silver’s predictions are likely to be accurate. He says that in the last two cycles, the pollsters have done a reasonable job of predicting the results despite their political bias. Gellman’s rationale is that the pollsters’ livelihood depends on their accuracy, and those who want to make money in this business want be accurate more than anything else. While he believes that factors such as voter turnout will affect the results, Gellman is most concerned by the effects of voter repression in swing states. As a historian, he has studied this 19th century phenomenon extensively.

GELLMAN: "I think it's undeniable that there has been an attempt to limit and exclude certain people from polls, particularly African Americans, and that's just frankly stunning to me in 2012 that I have to say this. No matter who wins the election, there is no excuse for not delivering the opportunity to exercise citizenship efficiently, fairly, and equitably."

Gellman believes that Obama’s defeat would create some “soul searching” and examination within the Democratic Party. However, he says that the Republican Party’s loss would prompt a far more interesting debate about whether there is too much moderation in the GOP.

State Senate District 24: Pete Miller wins Election

Republican incumbent candidate, Pete Miller, solidified a second term in Indiana State Senate District 24. Miller ran against Democrat Charles Bender. Miller received 66 percent of the vote, while Bender received 33 percent of the vote. Miller is looking forward to giving back to Indiana in his upcoming term.

Miller is working on a fiscally responsible budget that can drive home prices down to help citizens make ends meet.

Miller says he will continue business as usual on Wednesday.

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